Faced with Trump’s America, we need Europe “to be united in adversity”

Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election heralds the return of an economic policy that, mockery aside, can be summed up in two words: America First It is not for us to comment on the US public’s democratic choice. However, it is worth analysing the economic backstory. How is the US economy doing as the Biden years draw to a close? Quite well, judging by the main indicators. GDP growth in the US was 2.5% in 2023 (versus just 0.5% in the European Union) and is likely to come in above that figure for 2024.

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Budget 2025: stay on course 

The 2025 state budget is the most eagerly anticipated document of the year, setting out government policy. It will be delivered alongside multi-annual programming for 2025-2028. After the “transitional budget” in 2024, prepared by the previous government and “adjusted” by the new administration in March, the document presented on 9 October 2024 by the Finance Minister plainly sets out the full policy direction of the CSV-DP coalition. The Luxembourg Chamber of Commerce will have the opportunity to analyse the documents in detail over the coming weeks. However, given the importance of the occasion, here are a few immediate thoughts. 

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European competitiveness: an “existential challenge”

“An existential challenge”. That is how Mario Draghi, former president of the European Central Bank from 2011 to 2019 and prime minister of Italy from 2021 to 2022, described what awaits Europe, while presenting his report on the future of European competitiveness[1] on 9 September. He is not the first to warn of the risks relating to the recent economic trajectory of the European Union. But because of his status, experience, expertise, and the quality of the analysis work that he provided, his words resonated particularly intensely. “Existential”. I invite each of us to be aware of the significance of this adjective. It is not Europe as a geographic entity that is under threat, but rather its social, political, and perhaps even civilisational models, with their values of liberty, peace, democracy and equality. From this perspective, Draghi’s report reaches a clear conclusion: our children’s quality of life tomorrow depends on nothing less than our ability to restore European competitiveness today.

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Elections on 9 June – what businesses expect from Europe 

Just a few days out from the European elections, we find ourselves facing quite the paradox. The relevance of the European Union has never been more clearly demonstrated than during the current parliamentary term. During the healthcare crisis precipitated by COVID-19, the EU launched an €806 billion recovery plan. The beginning of the war in Ukraine in 2022 prompted the European Union to take decisive action, marking its emergence as a geopolitical force. During the energy crisis, the EU’s measures averted blackouts and supported the economy. And yet, as one of the most intense political cycles in EU history comes to an end, there is a worrying rise in Euroscepticism across member states. Politically, the Union could be significantly weakened after the 9 June elections, which would be tragic, especially in view of the unease ahead of the Hungarian presidency, set to begin on 1 July. We need a strong Europe now more than ever. 

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Europe’s uncoupling: a reality but not a fatality

The European Union has long had the ambition of rivalling the United States from an economic viewpoint. It actually managed to do so in the late 2000s. In 2008, at current prices, the Eurozone ($14.16 trillion) and United States ($14.77 trillion) had very similar levels of GDP. Students learned about this achievement and politicians basked in its glory, as if it proved the success of the European project.

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Public finances: the long-term is a pressing issue

A special budgetary procedure in a special year. As it does every five years, and on 8 October this year owing to the general election, Parliament has been debating a transition budget of “provisional twelfths” [1]. With just a few exceptions, the provisional budget appropriations for the first four months of 2024 equate to 4/12 of the appropriations approved for 2023. New spending not included in the budget approved for 2023 is therefore banned. This procedure can therefore be described as relatively mechanical. While it doesn’t make much sense to be drawing any budgetary or financial conclusions just yet given the current geopolitical and macroeconomic conditions, it is worth remembering that public finances are not just a guarantor of trust in the economy and a driver of infrastructure building, but are subject to numerous challenges and headwinds. To put in simply: urgent action is needed, on both content and form [2].

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The duty to seduce

 In the run-up to elections, the various political parties’ programmes tend to include proposals whose medium- and long-term cost to society and taxpayers, as well as the associated sources of funding, aren’t clearly defined. Sometimes simplistic solutions are put forward, such as making capital or legal entities contribute more. Occasionally, the argument is put forward that in Luxembourg, taxing labour and individuals is a greater burden than taxing capital and companies. This clearly misleading idea stems from a biased analysis of the direct and indirect tax contributions of economic players and of Luxembourg’s current attractiveness in terms of taxation for legal entities and companies. The idea is also based on the mistaken conviction that investors who have chosen the Grand Duchy will subsequently be unable to move to where the grass is greener. More than any other European Union member state, Luxembourg’s prosperity depends on its ability to attract foreign talent and investors.

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